Should Clinton even consider it?
Lets take a look at the numbers, using Real Clear Politics figures, we see that Obama has a total of 1389 delegates right now, before Texas and Ohio, Hillary Clinton has 1279, just 110 less than Obama.
The four states voting tomorrow for the Democrats are Ohio, Texas,Vermont and Rhode Island and between them they carry 444 delegates to the table.
To win the nomination from the Democratic party, the candidate of choice need 2,025 and since the party does not use the winner takes all system, those 444 delegates will be split proportionately between the two candidates, depending on the amount of votes each receives.
Bottom line, neither candidate, even with blowouts, can get to the magic number of 2,025 with tomorrow's votes.
There is no dispute over that simple fact.
Which brings us to the International Herald Tribune article:
"If, in fact, there is no measurable change on Tuesday," he said on Fox, Clinton would need "extraordinary percentages" in the remaining contests - averaging 62 percent of the delegates yet to be decided, by his calculation - to go on to victory. "I hope ultimately she makes an honest appraisal of her chances," putting party unity first, Durbin said.
It is true that if neither candidate can hit that 2,025 number by Aug. 25, 2008, which is when the Democratic convention will start in Denver, then it is possible that this will become a brokered convention, which is when there are not enough delegates obtained during the presidential primary and caucus process for a single candidate to obtain a majority for the presidential nominating convention.
A brokered convention leads to what is called political horse trading and that is where party elites get together and nominate a candidate, which doesn't even have to be the candidate ahead in delegates, or even the one that won the majority of the popular vote.
Lets toss the super delegate figures in here, because although they can switch their votes, at the moment Clinton has 241 and Obama has 196.
Still not enough to bring either candidate to the magic number of 2,025.
So the calls from the Obama campaign, along with Dick Durbin and John Kerry, for Clinton to "bow out" if she does not win decisive victories in Texas and Ohio (two of the four states voting tomorrow), is to say the least, self serving.
It would help bring party unity, but even without those decisive victories, Clinton would not be out of the game according to the numbers.
The question is not whether it would bring party unity but it should be, would Clinton simply give up for the sake of party unity if she believes that Obama is truly not ready for running the United States of America as the president?
The basic fact is that if the Democratic race for nomination comes down to a brokered convention, and the party elites believed that Clinton is better prepared to run against the Republican nominee and run the country, there would be nothing stopping them, even if Obama had more delegates and won them from the popular vote, from "selecting" Clinton as the nominee.
This has party leaders worried and rightly so.
The chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean, understands this dilemma all too clearly:
Dean had spoken before about the Democrats finding some "arrangement" if the party's nominee remained unclear well into the spring.
But on Sunday, he said that his concern was not over letting the primary process continue to its scheduled end - June 7 in Puerto Rico - but over the damage a divided national nominating convention would inflict on the party's chances.
Many believe that a recent email sent to the media and to Clinton's supporters, gives a clue to how she is already setting the stage for her continued run if she should not have those decisive victories tomorrow:
Clinton Campign Email:
RE: Obama Must-Wins
The media has anointed Barack Obama the presumptive nominee and he's playing the part. With an eleven state winning streak coming out of February, Senator Obama is riding a surge of momentum that has enabled him to pour unprecedented resources into Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.
The Obama campaign and its allies are outspending us two to one in paid media and have sent more staff into the March 4 states. In fact, when all is totaled, Senator Obama and his allies have outspent Senator Clinton by a margin of $18.4 million to $9.2 million on advertising in the four states that are voting next Tuesday.
Senator Obama has campaigned hard in these states. He has spent time meeting editorial boards, courting endorsers, holding rallies, and - of course - making speeches.
If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there's a problem. Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear:
Democrats, the majority of whom have favored Hillary in the primary contests held to date, have their doubts about Senator Obama and are having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer.
Despite calls from those that wish Clinton to bow out if the outcome from tomorrow's races do not meet her expectations, there are others, such as Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein, that does not believe she should withdraw, "Hillary Clinton is a major candidate." Feinstein adds, "She has every right to stay in the race if she chooses to do so."
The idea of a brokered convention may not be a preferred choice but the whole reason that option exists at all, is for situations just as this. All hype aside from Obama winning the last 11 contests, the numbers still show that he still hasn't won anything because he has not and cannot reach the 2,025 mark unless Hillary stands aside and hands it to him.
Hillary's email gives a hint about her strategy and from appearances it does not seem that she will be considering the option of bowing out in the name of party unity, but ultimately that choice will be in her hands.
The choice of fighting the party into a brokered convention and taking her chances with the party elites or stepping aside in the name of "unity".
That particular choice is Hillary Clinton's and hers alone.
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