Friday, January 04, 2008

The Iowa Caucus Last Night Brought Surprise: Next Stop New Hampshire

The New York Times is calling it two earthquakes and although the ground didn't really move, the results did show that those with the most money to throw about and those that considered themselves inevitable, were wrong.

Mike Huckabee took first place beating out Mitt Romney who spent over 10 million dollars in Iowa alone but Huckabee had what Romney didn't and that was the evangelical vote and while he cannot count on that in every state to pull him into that much of a lead, he did very well for himself in Iowa and deserves alot of credit for it.

The CNN story on last night points to the polls showing that Huckabee didn't only get the evangelicals but the women too.

The lesson for Mitt Romney in all of this is that money means nothing if you do not have the votes. Sometimes money translates into votes but that isn't always the case as Iowa proved last night.

Fred Thompson and John McCain produced a virtual tie in Iowa.

On the other side of the aisle, money and supposed "inevitability" isn't all it was cracked up to be for Hillary Clinton, which was a lesson she needed to learn.

Barack Obama took first place in the Democratic field last night by a good margin, enough of a margin to shake Hillary's "can't lose" aura. The fact that Edwards took a 1 percentage point lead over Hillary to leave her in third place is something it seems the right and the left seem to be savoring today and as the New York Post says in their headline "Clintons No Longer The Life of Party"

As I wrote about last night, immediately after the caucus results were in, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd dropped out of the race.

So, two huge surprises in Iowa last night,both of which deserve to be acknowledged but we also need to remember that is the first in a long line of challenges ahead for the candidates and New Hampshire is but days away, on Tuesday, January 8, and the candidates will be very busy in preparation for that night.

The schedule for the candidates in New Hampshire can be found here.

Before Tuesdays big event there will be two ABC News, WMUR-TV and Facebook debates in Manchester, NH one for Republicans and one for Democrats.

Due to not meeting the criteria which was listed on the ABC website, Republican presidential candidate Duncan Hunter and Democrats Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel have been eliminated from those debates.

In a WMUR/CNN poll, released Wednesday, on the republican side, John McCain and Mitt Romney head into the new Hampshire primary tied at 29 percent and former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who has been focusing on later states, received 12 percent. Mike Huckabee was at 10 percent.

Those numbers can but will not definitely change after last nights caucus in Iowa, because as the Pittsburgh Post Gazette points out, you cannot count on an Iowa bounce in New Hampshire.

The reasoning:

In 1980, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan won a two-to-one victory over George H.W. Bush here, despite Mr. Bush's earlier victory in Iowa. Eight years later, Mr. Bush, then vice president, won New Hampshire's Republican primary even though he had suffered a double-digit defeat at the hands of Sen. Bob Dole in Iowa.

In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts surged in New Hampshire after his unexpected Iowa win. But that surge followed the implosion of Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's campaign.

"Historically, there's not that much of a bounce between Iowa and New Hampshire," said Andrew E. Smith, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire at Durham. "There's some, but not much.


On the Democratic side in the WMUR/CNN poll, shows that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton narrowly led Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 34 to 30 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was third at 17 percent.

As a side note, as we mentioned yesterday, New Hampshire made the news before the Iowa caucus had been held with an announcement from the New Hampshire Department of Justice, regarding the McCain and Romney push poll complaints.

Back in November, Mitt Romney and John McCain's campaigns filed complaints with the New Hampshire Attorney General asking for an investigation into a negative push poll that had been conducted the week before.

A "push poll" is where, using the guise of opinion polling, disinformation about a candidate or issue is planted in the minds of those being 'surveyed'. Push-polls are designed to shape, rather than measure, public opinion.

Push polls violate two New Hampshire push poll statutes, RSA 664:2, XVII and RSA 664:16-a, and the New Hampshire Department of Justice launched an investigation after the two complaints were filed.

The next scheduled court appearance to further this investigation will not be until January 16,2008, which is after the new Hampshire primaries, so no matter what happens in these primares, that is something that must be kept in mind, because even after the primaries are over and the candidates have moved on to the next states, once the investigation is complete, if the DOJ has found criminal activity on the part of any of the candidates, they can basically kiss their candidacy goodbye.


For those interested in the candidates schedules leading up to the New Hampshire primary on January 8, 2008, here is a list.

FRIDAY, Jan. 4

• Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., will attend a rally at Tower Mills, 300 Bedford St., Manchester. 6:15 a.m.

• Former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican, meets and greets voters at The Golden Egg Diner, 960 Sagamore Ave., Portsmouth. 7:30 a.m.

• U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., will attend a "Time to Pick a President" rally with former President Bill Clinton at GFW Aeroservices Inc., 83 Perimeter Road, Nashua. 8 a.m.

• New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Democrat, hosts a Welcome Back to New Hampshire event at the Merrimack Restaurant, 786 Elm St., Manchester. 8:30 a.m.

• U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., will attend a rally at Pan Am Flight Services, 14 Aviation Ave., Portsmouth. 8:45 a.m. RSVP encouraged; call Matt at 433-7001.

• Former U.S. Sen. Mike Gravel, D-Alaska, holds a town hall-style meeting at the VFW George J. Maxfield VFW Post 1772, 43 Highland St., Rochester. 10 a.m.

• Richardson visits Ingram Senior Center, 1 Sally Sweet’s Way, Salem. 10:15 a.m.

• Richardson hosts a "Final Presidential Job Interview" town hall-style meeting at the Windham Senior Center, 2 North Lowell Road, Windham. 11 a.m.

• Obama will attend a rally at Concord High School, 170 Warren St., Concord. 12:30 p.m.

• Richardson visits T-Bones Restaurant, 77 Lowell Road, Hudson. 12:45 p.m.

• U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., visits the Hollis Pharmacy & General Store, 6 Ash St., Hollis. 12:45 p.m.

• Richardson hosts a Final Presidential Job Interview at GT Solar, 243 Daniel Webster Highway, Merrimack. Doors open at 1 p.m.

• Gravel holds a town hall-style meeting at the Ossipee Town Hall, Ossipee. 1:30 p.m.

• McCain holds a town hall-style meeting with employees at BAE Systems, 95 Canal St., Nashua. 1:45 p.m.

• Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth, attend a Nashua organizing event at the Radisson Hotel – Ballroom A, 11 Tara Blvd., Nashua. 2 p.m.

• Richardson hosts a "Final Presidential Job Interview" town hall-style meeting at Elliot Hospital, 1 Elliot Way, Manchester. 2:15 p.m.

• Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee campaigns with movie star Chuck Norris at New England College’s Bridges Gymnasium, 98 Bridge St., Henniker. 4 p.m.

• Romney meets voters at the Wal-Mart Supercenter, 35 Fresh River Road, Epping. 4:15 p.m.

• Gravel holds a town hall-style meeting at the Metropolitan Coffee House, 2680 Main St., North Conway. 5 p.m.

• Romney meets voters at the Common Man Restaurant, 25 Water St., Concord. 5:45 p.m.

• McCain holds a town hall-style meeting at Hudson VFW Post 5791, 15 Bockes Road, Hudson. 5:45 p.m.

• Richardson visits the Alpine Club, 175 Putnam St., Manchester. 6 p.m.

• Edwards holds a town hall-style meeting at the Frank Jones Center, 400 Route 1 Bypass, Portsmouth. 6:30 p.m.

• Richardson hosts a "Final Presidential Job Interview" town hall-style meeting at New Hampshire Technical College, Room 150, 505 Amherst St., Nashua. 6:30 p.m.

• Romney holds an "Ask Mitt Anything" town hall-style meeting at the William B. Cashin Community Center, 151 Douglas St., Manchester. 6:45 p.m.

• Several Democratic presidential candidates invited to attend the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s Annual 100 Club Dinner at the Hampshire Dome, 50 Emerson Road, Milford. 7 p.m. U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Obama, Kucinich, Richardson, and Clinton have confirmed.

• Richardson goes bowling at Leda Lanes, 340 Amherst St., Nashua. 9 p.m.

• Richardson visits The Peddler’s Daughter, 48 Main St., Nashua. 10 p.m.

SATURDAY, Jan. 5

• Romney holds an "Ask Mitt Anything" town hall-style meeting at Pinkerton Academy, Shepard Auditorium, 5 Pinkerton St., Derry. 8:45 a.m.

• Richardson delivers lawn signs to supporters, 60 Dale Road, Hooksett. 9 a.m.

• Edwards attends a campaign canvas kickoff in Market Square, corner of Pleasant Street Portsmouth. 9 a.m.

• Richardson hosts a "Get Out the Vote Roundup" at the New Hampshire Technical Institute auditorium, 31 College Drive, Concord. 9:30 a.m.

• Clinton will attend a "Time to Pick a President" event at the Merrimack Valley High School gymnasium, 106 Village St., Penacook. 9:30 a.m. RSVP at hillaryclinton.com/nh.

• Obama attends a rally at Nashua North High School, 10 Chuck Druding Drive, Nashua. 10 a.m.

• Huckabee campaigns with movie star Chuck Norris at the "Reason for Giving," Londonderry Middle School Cafeteria, 313 Mammoth Road, 10 a.m. Londonderry.

• Gravel holds a town hall-style meeting in Jackson Village. 10 a.m.

• Edwards attends a rally at Bektash Temple Hall, 189 Pembroke Road, Concord. 10:15 a.m.

• Romney meets voters at the Bean Towne Coffee House and Cafe, 201 Route 111, Hampstead. 10:30 a.m.

• Gravel meets voters at the J-Town Deli, 174 Main St., Jackson Village. 11 a.m.

• Romney meets voters at the Ashooh residence, 59 Pasture Lane, Bedford. 11:45 a.m.

• McCain holds a town hall-style meeting at the Peterborough Town Hall, 1 Grove St., Peterborough. Noon.

• Gravel holds a town hall-style meeting at the Berlin VFW, 1107 Main St., Berlin. 1 p.m.

• Edwards holds a town hall-style meeting at Lebanon High School, 195 Hanover St., Lebanon. 1:15 p.m.

• Gravel meets voters at T-Birds Cafe, 101 Main St., Berlin. 2:15 p.m.

• Gravel meets voters at the Littleton Diner, 145 Main St., Littleton. 4:15 p.m.

• ABC News, WMUR-TV and Facebook host back-to-back Republican (7 p.m.) and Democratic (9 p.m.) presidential debates at Saint Anselm College, Manchester.

• McCain will attend a post-debate party at Jillian’s Restaurant, 50 Phillippe Cote St., Manchester. 8:30 p.m.

• Romney will attend a post-debate rally at Varick’s Sports Bar, 24 Depot St., Manchester. 9:15 pm

• Richardson visits a debate watch party at the Richardson for President Manchester Field Office, 545 Hooksett Road, Manchester. 11:15 p.m.

SUNDAY, Jan. 6

• Richardson visits Julien’s Corner Kitchen, 150 Bridge St., Manchester. 9 a.m.

• Richardson will attend a candidate open house at Temple Adath Yeshurun, 152 Prospect St., Manchester. 9:45 a.m.

• The New Hampshire Republican Party hosts "First in the Nation Presidential Brunch" at Hampshire Hills, Milford. 11 a.m. Several candidates are expected to attend. Tickets are $125. For tickets or more information, call 225-9341.

• Huckabee will campaign with Chuck Norris at a "Chowderfest Meet and Greet," the Lobster Tail Restaurant, 4 Cobbetts Pond Road, Windham. 11:30 a.m.

• Richardson visits the Peterborough Diner, 10 Depot St., Peterborough. 11:40 a.m.

• McCain hosts a town hall-style meeting at The Woodbury School gymnasium, 206 Main St., Salem. Noon.

• Richardson hosts a "Get Out the Vote Roundup" at the Central Square Bandstand, 10 Central Square, Keene. Noon.

• U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, speaks at closing ceremony of the 2008 New Hampshire Liberty Forum at the Crowne Plaza, Nashua. Noon.

• Edwards will attend a health care forum at the Franco American Centre, 62 Concord St., Manchester. Noon.

• Clinton will attend a "Time to Pick a President" event at the Nashua North High School gymnasium, 10 Chuck Druding Drive, Nashua. Noon. RSVP at hillaryclinton.com/nh.

• Romney holds an "Ask Mitt Anything" town hall-style meeting at Elm Street Middle School, 117 Elm St., Nashua. 12:30 p.m.

• Richardson hosts a "Final Presidential Job Interview" town hall-style meeting at the Newport Opera House, 20 Main St., Newport. 2 p.m.

• Edwards holds a town hall-style meeting at Keene State College, 229 Main St., Keene. 3:15 p.m.

• Richardson holds a "Get Out the Vote Roundup" at the Hanover High School auditorium, 41 Lebanon St., Hanover. 3:30 p.m.

• Clinton will attend a "Time to Pick a President" event at the Winnacunnet High School gymnasium, 4 Alumni Drive, Hampton. 5 p.m. RSVP at hillaryclinton.com/nh.

• Richardson visits the Common Man Restaurant, 25 Water St., Concord. 6 p.m.

• Richardson visits the IMAX Theater, 1226 Hooksett Road, Hooksett. 6:45 p.m.

• Edwards holds a "Working Families" forum at the Gilbert H. Hood Middle School cafeteria, 5 Hood Road, Derry. 7:15 p.m.

• Richardson visits the 99 Restaurant, 1308 Hooksett Road, Hooksett. 7:30 p.m.

• NH GOP/FOX News Republican Forum at St. Anselm College, 100 St. Anselm Drive, Manchester. 8 p.m.

• Richardson visits the Red Arrow Diner, 61 Lowell St., Manchester. 8:15 p.m.

• U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, appears at live town hall-style meeting broadcast on TV23 in Manchester and www.kucinichtv.com at MCAM Studios, 540 N Commercial St., Manchester. 8:45 p.m.

• Richardson visits the Airport Diner, 2280 Brown Ave., Manchester. 9 p.m.

• Richardson visits Denny’s Restaurant, 92 Cluff Crossing Road, Salem. 10 p.m.

MONDAY, Jan. 7

• Romney meets voters at Young’s Restaurant, 15 Main St., Durham. 8 a.m.

• Edwards holds a town hall-style meeting at the Lake Opechee Inn, 62 Doris Ray Court, Lakeport. 10:45 a.m.

• Romney speaks to the Nashua Rotary Club Address, 25 Fairway St., Nashua. Noon. Event is for Rotary members and invited guests only.

• Richardson takes a tour and meets with employees at Goss International, 121 Technology Drive, Durham. Doors open at 9:30 a.m.

• Richardson visits Brickstone, 10 Main St., Rochester. 11:25 a.m.

• Richardson visits Breaking New Ground, 14 Market Square, Portsmouth. 12:30 p.m.

• Richardson visits Village Hardware, 2 High St., Hampton. 2 p.m.

• Richardson hosts a "Final Presidential Job Interview" town hall-style meeting at the Timberland Factory, 200 Domain Drive, Stratham. 2:10 p.m.

• Romney holds an "Ask Mitt Anything" town hall-style meeting at the Derry-Salem Elks Club, Shadow Lake Road, Route 111, Salem. 3 p.m.

• Richardson hosts a "Final Presidential Job Interview" town hall-style meeting at Phillips Exeter Academy, 20 Main St., Exeter. Doors open at 3:10 p.m.

• Richardson visits the Puritan Backroom, 245 Hooksett Road, Manchester. 5:45 p.m.

• Richardsons holds a "Get Out the Vote Roundup" at the Franco-American Centre, 52 Concord St., Manchester. 6 p.m.

• Romney holds an "Ask Mitt Anything" town hall-style meeting at McKelvie Middle School, 108 Liberty Hill Road, Bedford. 6:20 p.m.

• Edwards will attend a rally at the Elks Lodge 184, 282 Durham Road, Dover. 7:15 p.m.

• Richardson holds a "Get Out the Vote Roundup" at the Portsmouth Gas Light Company, third floor, 64 Market St., Portsmouth. 7:30 p.m.

TUESDAY, Jan. 8

• New Hampshire primary.

Of course, if anybody else drops out, that schedule will change, but as of now, those are the events on the books.


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