Friday, September 05, 2008

Rasmussen and CBS Polls: John McCain Convention Bounce Begins, Ties Up Presidential Race Again

Last week Barack Obama received the traditional convention bounce seen throughout the years and the latest polls show that John McCain's convention bounce has begun, effectively bringing the race back to a tie.
Yesterday CBS released their presidential tracking poll, as reported by The Politico, show the expected convention bounce has begun for the McCain campaign, which has brought the race back to the neck and neck status, with each candidate receiving 42 percent.

According to the CBS poll, 12 percent of voters are still undecided and the convention bounce for Obama of 8 points, which had him ahead by 48 percent to 40 percent the week before, had been erased.

CBS polling concluded Wednesday, so it does not include any effect from last night’s speech by Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.


The Politico report was written before the latest Rasmussen rolling three day poll was released this morning, which confirms the CBS poll's assertion that the previous Democratic bounce is gone.

Rasmussen explains:

Virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before McCain’s speech last night. Roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before Palin’s speech on Wednesday night.


Accurate reflections of the whole Republican Convention bounce will not be seen, according to that explanation from Rasmussen about the timing of the interviews, until Monday at the soonest, perhaps Tuesday, when all speeches, including John McCain's and his vice presidential running mate Sarah Palin's will be inclusive to the results.

Rasmussen shows that Barack Obama has 46 percent while John McCain holds 45 percent.

Rasmussen also shows favorabe ratings, which shows that both McCain and Obama hold a 57 percent favorable rating and when asked about Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, 58 percent gave her a favorable rating with 40 percent being listed as "very favorable."

51 percent of voters believe John McCain made the right choice in choosing Sarah Palin as his running mate while 47 percent believe Barack Obama made the right choice in choosing Joe Biden as his running mate.

Voters are evenly decided as to whether Sarah Palin or Barack Obama has better experience to be the President.

[Update] TechCrunch is reporting that according to Google tending data, McCain "quickly gaining ground" in online hits to the websites of the candidates.

Both Obama and Mccain's websites have shown a spike, McCain's since he announced Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate and Obama's being credited to his speech.

They also report that Hitwise shows the same tightening in the gap, with Obama still ahead as Mccain gains ground, but neither candidate is comparing to Sarah Palin in the captivation of the web audience.

Even after Palin's initial spike they show that "Palin’s search volume is more than double McCain’s and Obama’s."

This in no way indicates how people will vote, just the amount of attention the candidates are garnering online.

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