While today I am attending the Nebraska GOP State Convention, I recently attended my 20 year High School reunion on Long Island.
http://www.tygrrrrexpress.com/2010/07/my-20-year-high-school-reunion/
eric aka the Tygrrrr Express
▼
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Friday, July 30, 2010
Joy Behar, Barack Obama, and the end of civilization
While I get set to attend the Nebraska GOP Convention, President Obama takes time out from doing nothing to chat with the imbeciles on The View.
http://www.tygrrrrexpress.com/2010/07/joy-behar-barack-obama-and-the-end-of-civilization/
eric aka the Tygrrrr Express
http://www.tygrrrrexpress.com/2010/07/joy-behar-barack-obama-and-the-end-of-civilization/
eric aka the Tygrrrr Express
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Arizona Files SB 1070 Appeal
Just one day after federal Judge Susan Bolton nixed 4 out of 14 key elements of the Arizona Immigration law, pending further review and trial, Governor Jan Brewer speaks to the appeal that has been filed, today, with the court of appeals seeking a reversal of Bolton's ruling.
Brewer has also filed a motion requesting an expedited hearing of the law by court of appeals.
.
Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer filed an appeal Thursday with the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals after a federal judge blocked a key portion of her state’s immigration law.
“America is not going to sit back and allow the ongoing federal failures to continue. We are a nation of laws and we believe they need to be enforced,” Brewer said. “If the federal government wants to be in charge of illegal immigration and they want no help from states, it then needs to do its job. Arizona would not be faced with this problem if the federal government honored its responsibilities.”
“Illegal immigration is an ongoing crisis the State of Arizona did not create and the federal government has refused to fix,” she continued. “[Senate bill] 1070 protects all of us, every Arizona citizen and everyone here in our state lawfully. It ensures that the constitutional rights of ALL in Arizona are undiminished.”
Brewer has also filed a motion requesting an expedited hearing of the law by court of appeals.
.
Obama Advisors And Appointees Part Of Journolist To Shape News Coverage
The other shoe finally drops and The Daily Caller provides the information that it was not only Liberal media journalists, editors and academics that were part of Journolist, the list-serv created by Erza Klein with approximately 400 members, but political operatives including Obama advisors and appointees that partook in the discussions to try to shape political news.
The collusion to destroy Sarah Palin by Journolist members, the disgusting gossip fest showing obsessive group-think about rumors over Palin's fifth child Trig, the fear and loathing with desire to have Fox News gone, the collaboration on how to distract the public from Jeremiah Wright: all of that while distasteful, doesn't connect the Obama administration officials with partaking in that collusion.
Until now.
Read the entire 2 page piece at The Daily Caller.
.
The collusion to destroy Sarah Palin by Journolist members, the disgusting gossip fest showing obsessive group-think about rumors over Palin's fifth child Trig, the fear and loathing with desire to have Fox News gone, the collaboration on how to distract the public from Jeremiah Wright: all of that while distasteful, doesn't connect the Obama administration officials with partaking in that collusion.
Until now.
Two of the administration’s chief economic advisors, Jared Bernstein, the vice president’s top economist, and Jason Furman, deputy director of the National Economic Council, were members of Journolist until they began working officially for Obama.
Ilan Goldenberg, now an advisor on Middle East policy at the Pentagon, was a member until he joined the administration. Moira Whelan left Journolist to work at the Department of Homeland Security. Anne-Marie Slaughter left to work at the State Department. Former Journolist member Ben Brandzel is now a top staffer at Organizing for America, the political arm of the Obama White House.
Josh Orton, a former spokesman for Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), became Obama’s deputy director of new media during the 2008 presidential campaign. After the election, he joined Journolist.
Journolist founder Ezra Klein, a staffer at the Washington Post, says he “tried to be very strict” in making sure no active political operatives joined Journolist. “It’s possible I missed someone,” he explained in an email.
Read the entire 2 page piece at The Daily Caller.
.
Charles Rangel Cuts Deal Before Ethics Trial To Avoid Public Humiliation
So much for Charlie Rangel's tough talk where he welcome a public trial before his election. After Democratic members of the house publicly called for him to resign and after heavy political pressure applied to not force Democrats to endure an ethics trial this close to the November midterms, Charlie finally caved.
[Update] Rangel denies that a deal has been made.
[Update] Deal gets scuttled (for now) and 13 counts of ethical violations are brought up against Charlie Rangel.
New York Congressman Charles Rangel has reportedly cut a deal to admit to ethical wrongdoing and avoid a potentially humiliating public trial.
Harlem friends of Rangel tell CBS 2 they have been told that the details could be unveiled when the House Ethics Committee meets Thursday afternoon.
"Sixty years ago I survived a Chinese attack in North Korea and as a result I wrote a book saying that I hadn't had a bad day since," Rangel said. "Today I have to reassess that statement." In a sense, Thursday is Charlie Rangel's war. He is battling to preserve his legacy of 40 years of congressional service in the face of ethics charges that, at the very least, will subject him to a humiliating process of having to admit ethical wrong doing.
Just what he will admit to and how he will do it remains to be seen. The punishment remains to be seen as well, but sources tell CBS 2 that at the end of the day, Rangel is not expected to be thrown out of Congress and that he is expected to run for reelection to a 21st term.
[Update] Rangel denies that a deal has been made.
New York Democrat Charles Rangel says there's no deal yet to settle his ethics case and avoid a trial on charges of violating standards of conduct.
Rangel told reporters outside his office, "Until someone tells me there's a deal, there isn't."
[Update] Deal gets scuttled (for now) and 13 counts of ethical violations are brought up against Charlie Rangel.
Illegal Immigration and "Compassion"
Before heading out to visit the Omaha, Nebraska exhibits dedicated to the Jews of Nebraska and Iowa, I offer some thoughts on illegal immigration and "compassion."
http://www.tygrrrrexpress.com/2010/07/illegal-immigration-and-compassion/
eric aka the Tygrrrr Express
http://www.tygrrrrexpress.com/2010/07/illegal-immigration-and-compassion/
eric aka the Tygrrrr Express
Jan Brewer Statement On Federal Ruling of SB 1070, AZ Immigration Law
From Jan Brewer:
[Update] Appeal filed.
.
“This fight is far from over. In fact, it is just the beginning, and at the end of what is certain to be a long legal struggle, Arizona will prevail in its right to protect our citizens. I am deeply grateful for the overwhelmingly support we have received from across our nation in our efforts to defend against the failures of the federal government.
“I have consulted with my legal counsel about our next steps. We will take a close look at every single element Judge Bolton removed from the law, and we will soon file an expedited appeal at the United States Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.
“For anyone willing to see it -- the crisis is as clear as is the federal government’s failure to address it.
“The judge herself noted that the stash houses where smugglers hide immigrants from Mexico before bringing them into the country's interior have become a fixture on the news in Arizona and that, ‘You can barely go a day without a location being found in Phoenix where there are numerous people being harbored.’”
“When I signed the bill on April 23rd, I said, SB 1070 – represents another tool for our state to use as we work to address a crisis we did not create and the federal government has actively refused to fix. The law protects all of us, every Arizona citizen and everyone here in our state lawfully. And, it does so while ensuring that the constitutional rights of ALL in Arizona are undiminished – holding fast to the diversity that has made Arizona so great.
“I will battle all the way to the Supreme Court, if necessary, for the right to protect the citizens of Arizona. Meanwhile, I also know we still have work to do in confronting the fear-mongers, those dealing in hate and lies and economic boycotts that seek to do Arizona harm.
“We have already made some progress in waking up Washington. But the question still remains: will Washington do its job, and put an end to the daily operations of smugglers in our nation, or will the delays and sidesteps continue? I believe that the defenders of the rule of law will ultimately succeed with us in our demand for action.”
[Update] Appeal filed.
.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Who's Winning the House?
As we have explained elsewhere, there is a pretty decent correlation between generic party polls done with LIKELY VOTER samples only in midterm elections with how many seats each party winds up with in the U. S. House of Representatives. To see which party would control the House if the election were held today based on the average of the likely voter generic ballot polls for today, we have prepared the tables below. The generic ballot number required column is shaded blue when that average favors the Democrats and red when it favors the Republicans.
The other columns are shaded blue where the generic ballot average would leave control of the House in Democrat hands and shaded red when it would give control to the Republicans. We project that the Republicans will lose two of their four vulnerable seats (DE-AL, HI-1, IL-10 and LA-3). Since the Republicans now have 178 seats they need a net gain of 40 seats to gain control, but since they will likely lose two of their own, it would take 42 pick-ups from Democrat held seats to gain control. As you can see from the table, it takes a generic ballot figure of 2.1 in favor of the Republicans to gain that 42nd seat.
We have run the main table down to 10 in favor of the Republicans. While there are another 56 seats in play, we cannot reliably extend the mathematical equations predicting a Republican outcome that strong because there is no data point that far in favor of the Republicans. The previous high was 7 in 1994 for the Republicans in all midterm elections since 1950 whereas the Democrat high was 20 in 1974. The mere fact that the generic ballot would favor the Republicans by a wider margin than in 1994 speaks volumes about the current political climate.
Next we have a table showing the likely voter sample polls for the generic ballot as of today. As you can see, the average today is 9.0 in favor of the Republicans which would give them a net gain of 77 seats or control by a 255 - 180 margin. The seats requiring a number higher than today's average are not shaded.
The other columns are shaded blue where the generic ballot average would leave control of the House in Democrat hands and shaded red when it would give control to the Republicans. We project that the Republicans will lose two of their four vulnerable seats (DE-AL, HI-1, IL-10 and LA-3). Since the Republicans now have 178 seats they need a net gain of 40 seats to gain control, but since they will likely lose two of their own, it would take 42 pick-ups from Democrat held seats to gain control. As you can see from the table, it takes a generic ballot figure of 2.1 in favor of the Republicans to gain that 42nd seat.
We have run the main table down to 10 in favor of the Republicans. While there are another 56 seats in play, we cannot reliably extend the mathematical equations predicting a Republican outcome that strong because there is no data point that far in favor of the Republicans. The previous high was 7 in 1994 for the Republicans in all midterm elections since 1950 whereas the Democrat high was 20 in 1974. The mere fact that the generic ballot would favor the Republicans by a wider margin than in 1994 speaks volumes about the current political climate.
Next we have a table showing the likely voter sample polls for the generic ballot as of today. As you can see, the average today is 9.0 in favor of the Republicans which would give them a net gain of 77 seats or control by a 255 - 180 margin. The seats requiring a number higher than today's average are not shaded.
| Poll | Date | Sample | Dems | Reps | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MC Average | 7/9 - 7/25 | -- | 38.0 | 47.0 | Republicans +9.0 |
| Bloomberg | 7/9 - 7/12 | 875 LV | 40 | 48 | Republicans +8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/19- 7/25 | 3500 LV | 36 | 46 | Republicans +10 |
| State | District | Incumbent Democrat | 2008 Margin | McCain Margin | Rank | Generic Ballot # Required |
| Virginia | 5 | Tom Perriello | 0.23% | 2.31% | 1 | 9.1 |
| Louisiana | 3 | Open | #0.50% | 23.96% | 2 | 8.9 |
| New York | 20 | Scott Murphy | 0.45% | -3.00% | 3 | 8.6 |
| Tennessee | 6 | Open | #1.21% | 25.28% | 4 | 8.3 |
| Alabama | 2 | Bobby Bright | 0.62% | 27.37% | 5 | 8.1 |
| Ohio | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | 0.76% | -7.12% | 6 | 7.8 |
| Idaho | 1 | Walt Minnick | 1.21% | 25.94% | 7 | 7.5 |
| Maryland | 1 | Frank M. Kratovil, Jr. | 0.79% | 18.45% | 8 | 7.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 3 | Kathy Dahlkemper | 2.47% | 27 Votes | 9 | 7.0 |
| Michigan | 7 | Mark Schauer | 2.31% | -5.23% | 10 | 6.8 |
| Tennessee | 8 | Open | #1.28% | 13.28% | 11 | 6.6 |
| New York | 29 | Open | 1.93% | 2.22% | 12 | 6.3 |
| New York | 23 | William L. Owens | 3.11% | -5.22% | 13 | 6.1 |
| Indiana | 9 | Baron Hill | #4.52% | 1.76% | 14 | 5.9 |
| Florida | 8 | Alan Grayson | 4.03% | -5.70% | 15 | 5.6 |
| Arkansas | 2 | Open | #4.70% | 9.91% | 16 | 5.4 |
| Ohio | 1 | Steven L. Driehaus | 4.94% | -10.25% | 17 | 5.2 |
| New Hampshire | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | 5.89% | -6.21% | 18 | 4.9 |
| Nevada | 3 | Dina Titus | 5.14% | -12.76% | 19 | 4.7 |
| Kansas | 3 | Open | #4.78% | -2.58% | 20 | 4.5 |
| Texas | 17 | T. Chester Edwards | 7.48% | 35.17% | 21 | 4.2 |
| New Jersey | 3 | John Adler | 3.31% | -5.38% | 22 | 4.0 |
| Indiana | 8 | Open | #9.44% | 3.90% | 23 | 3.7 |
| Arizona | 5 | Harry Mitchell | 9.58% | 4.53% | 24 | 3.5 |
| New York | 24 | Michael Arcuri | 3.94% | -2.36% | 25 | 3.3 |
| Mississippi | 1 | Travis W. Childers | 10.59% | 23.54% | 26 | 3.1 |
| Wisconsin | 8 | Steve Kagen | 8.10% | -8.10% | 27 | 2.7 |
| Georgia | 12 | John Barrow | #3.62% | -8.84% | 28 | 2.5 |
| Ohio | 16 | John A. Boccieri | 10.73% | 2.61% | 29 | 2.2 |
| Pennsylvania | 11 | Paul E. Kanjorski | 3.25% | -14.83% | 30 | 2.0 |
| New Hampshire | 2 | Open | #5.37% | -13.09% | 31 | 1.7 |
| Arizona | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | 11.90% | 5.94% | 32 | 1.4 |
| Pennsylvania | 10 | Christopher P. Carney | 12.66% | 8.43% | 33 | 1.1 |
| Virginia | 2 | Glenn Nye | 4.94% | -1.96% | 34 | 0.8 |
| New Mexico | 2 | Harry Teague | 11.92% | 1.33% | 35 | 0.5 |
| Colorado | 4 | Betsy Markey | 12.39% | 0.88% | 36 | 0.2 |
| North Dakota | 1 | Earl R. Pomeroy, III | #15.11% | 8.63% | 37 | 0.2 |
| California | 11 | Gerald McNerney | 10.55% | -9.33% | 38 | 0.5 |
| Connecticut | 4 | Jim Himes | 3.97% | -20.06% | 39 | 0.9 |
| Illinois | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | #11.32% | -8.18% | 40 | 1.3 |
| South Dakota | 1 | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin | #7.45% | 8.41% | 41 | 1.7 |
| Arizona | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | 16.45% | 10.17% | 42 | 2.1 |
| Florida | 22 | Ron Klein | 9.34% | -4.04% | 43 | 2.5 |
| Minnesota | 1 | Tim Walz | #13.98% | -4.37% | 44 | 2.9 |
| Michigan | 1 | Open | #14.88% | -1.82% | 45 | 3.3 |
| Washington | 3 | Open | #9.32% | -6.72% | 46 | 3.7 |
| Massachusetts | 10 | Open | #12.58% | -11.27% | 47 | 4.1 |
| Virginia | 11 | Gerald E. Connolly | 11.64% | -14.96% | 48 | 4.4 |
| Florida | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | 16.09% | 1.95% | 49 | 4.8 |
| Pennsylvania | 12 | Mark S. Critz | 7.55% | 0.31% | 50 | 5.1 |
| Pennsylvania | 7 | Open | #12.76% | -12.64% | 51 | 5.3 |
| Wisconsin | 7 | Open | #8.65% | -13.39% | 52 | 5.6 |
| New York | 25 | Dan Maffei | 12.94% | -13.12% | 53 | 5.8 |
| Iowa | 3 | Leonard L. Boswell | 14.25% | -9.37% | 54 | 6.1 |
| Arkansas | 1 | Open | #20.42% | 20.28% | 55 | 6.3 |
| Georgia | 8 | Jim Marshall | #11.43% | 13.36% | 56 | 6.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 8 | Patrick J. Murphy | 15.14% | -8.93% | 57 | 6.6 |
| Virginia | 9 | Frederick C. Boucher | #17.57% | 19.10% | 58 | 6.8 |
| New York | 1 | Timothy H. Bishop | 16.77% | -3.82% | 59 | 7.0 |
| Illinois | 17 | Phil Hare | #14.35% | -14.24% | 60 | 7.1 |
| Illinois | 8 | Melissa Bean | #6.89% | -12.88% | 61 | 7.3 |
| New York | 19 | John Hall | 17.35% | -2.28% | 62 | 7.4 |
| Illinois | 14 | Bill Foster | 15.50% | -11.06% | 63 | 7.6 |
| Pennsylvania | 4 | Jason Altmire | 11.72% | 10.45% | 64 | 7.7 |
| Massachusetts | 5 | Niki Tsongas | #6.21% | -19.51% | 65 | 7.8 |
| Oregon | 5 | Kurt Schrader | 15.92% | -10.62% | 66 | 7.9 |
| Indiana | 2 | Joe Donnelly | #7.95% | -9.38% | 67 | 8.0 |
| Ohio | 18 | Zack Space | 19.75% | 7.86% | 68 | 8.1 |
| Ohio | 6 | Charles A. Wilson, Jr. | #18.95% | 2.67% | 69 | 8.2 |
| Texas | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | 13.84% | -2.69% | 70 | 8.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 13 | Allyson Y. Schwartz | #14.46% | -18.05% | 71 | 8.4 |
| Massachusetts | 3 | James P. McGovern | #15.42% | -19.35% | 72 | 8.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 17 | T. Timothy Holden | #20.16% | 3.45% | 73 | 8.6 |
| West Virginia | 1 | Open | #19.35% | 15.26% | 74 | 8.7 |
| Iowa | 1 | Bruce L. Braley | #11.85% | -17.52% | 75 | 8.8 |
| Hawaii | 1 | Open | #10.26% | -42.29% | 76 | 8.9 |
| Washington | 1 | Jay Inslee | #14.33% | -26.51% | 77 | 9.0 |
| Connecticut | 5 | Chris Murphy | #12.93% | -13.94% | 78 | 9.1 |
| South Carolina | 5 | John M. Spratt, Jr. | #13.84% | 7.24% | 79 | 9.1 |
| Massachusetts | 6 | John F. Tierney | #12.18% | -16.94% | 80 | 9.2 |
| New Mexico | 1 | Martin Heinrich | 11.31% | -20.43% | 81 | 9.3 |
| Colorado | 7 | Ed Perlmutter | #11.92% | -19.07% | 82 | 9.3 |
| North Carolina | 8 | Larry Kissell | 10.76% | -5.88% | 83 | 9.4 |
| California | 18 | Dennis Cardoza | #7.90% | -20.27% | 84 | 9.5 |
| New York | 2 | Steve J. Israel | #18.02% | -13.04% | 85 | 9.5 |
| Michigan | 9 | Gary Peters | 9.45% | -12.96% | 86 | 9.6 |
| Florida | 2 | Allen Boyd | #18.97% | 9.69% | 87 | 9.7 |
| New York | 4 | Carolyn McCarthy | #13.01% | -16.64% | 88 | 9.7 |
| Wisconsin | 3 | Ron Kind | #12.95% | -16.96% | 89 | 9.8 |
| Maine | 2 | Michael H. Michaud | #18.56% | -11.26% | 90 | 9.9 |
| North Carolina | 13 | Brad Miller | #17.58% | -18.32% | 91 | 9.9 |
| Kentucky | 3 | John Yarmuth | 18.73% | -12.30% | 92 | 10.0 |