Tuesday, August 31, 2010
If a 7 point spread in 1994 gave the Republicans control of the House by 231 to 204 seats, what would a 10 point spread do? If you have been following our model adopted from Gallup, you already know the answer: the Republicans would control the House by a whopping 71 seat margin, 253 to 182. That last time the Republicans controlled the House by that big a margin was as a result of the 1928 election, some 82 years ago. The last time the Republicans gained more than 71 seats was not in 1994 (54 seats) or even in 1946 (55 seats), it was in 1938 (81 seats). Thus a 75 seat gain would be the biggest in 72 years, but we have already pointed that out. At this point, it seems fair to say that the Democrats are not just toast, but burned toast.
All of this is merely a prelude to saying that we are adjusting our projections from a 67 seats picked up while losing 2 for a net gain of 65 to a whopping 80 seats picked up for a net gain of 78 seats. Thus our new projection is for a 256 to 179 seat House for the Republicans. Since the current House has the exact opposite of that, we are projecting a total flip over of the House giving the Republicans control by the exact same margin as the Democrats have now. Our reason for doing this is precisely because of what has been happening in the generic congressional ballot polls. This would require a 10.6 point margin in the likely voter generic congressional polls.
That average has been 10.5 lately even though today it is only 7.3 because Rasmussen has dropped down to 6 from 12 two weeks ago. The Gallup poll says that the latest Rasmussen poll is most likely an outlier poll and will return to the 9 point range next week. If you are interested in just which seats the Republicans will pick up, you will find that in our Marston Report. To give you an idea of what that means in the real world, it means the Republicans will have to defeat the likes of Bob Etheridge in NC-2, Ed Perlmutter in CO-2, Chellie Pingree in ME-1 and Bruce Braley in IA-1. The first two are rated by Real Clear Politics as leans D, but the last two are listed as likely D. If we cannot get those last two, the next two in our rankings are Phil Hare in IL-17 and Melissa Bean in IL-8 which RCP does list as leans D.
Mediaite article breaking the news found here and TheBlaze website found here.
The message from Beck:
If you are like me, watching the news or reading the paper can be an exercise in exasperation. It’s so hard to find a place that helps me make sense of the world I see.
Too many important stories are overlooked. And too many times we see mainstream media outlets distorting facts to fit rigid agendas. Not that you’ve ever heard me complain about the media before. Okay, maybe once or twice.
But there comes a time when you have to stop complaining and do something. And so we decided to hire some actual journalists to launch a new website — The Blaze. And we moved fast. We built the team and the site in just two months.
We want this to be a place where you can find breaking news, original reporting, insightful opinions and engaging videos about the stories that matter most.
The Blaze will be about current news — and more. It’s not just politics and policy. It’s looking for insight wherever we find it. We’ll examine our culture, deal with matters of faith and family, and we won’t be afraid of a history lesson.
The image of flame is a powerful. It has long stood for a burning truth. A truth that is not consumed. The Blaze will pursue truth. Of course we will make mistakes. Honest mistakes. And we’ll be quick with corrections. We intend to earn your trust and keep it day in and day out with hard work and a lot of transparency.
And don’t expect everything to be deadly serious. Boring is bad. We intend to have plenty of fun.
We’ve put together a solid team of writers and reporters. I intend to keep them busy by sending a zillion story ideas at all hours.
We’re also counting on you. Your comments. Your feedback. Your tips! You will help us build and shape The Blaze.
Thank you in advance.
I don't agree with everything that comes out of Gelnn Beck's mouth but it is good to see another outlet to compete with the overwhelming liberal bias in today's media.
So I wish Beck luck in his new endeavor.
Last night I flew from Chicago to Los Angeles. Tonight I am on the redeye to New York.
eric aka the Tygrrrr Express
eric aka the Tygrrrr Express
eric aka the Tygrrrr Express
eric aka the Tygrrrr Express
First we saw Gallup showing the GOP doubling Democrats in enthusiasm 50 percent to 25 percent and the GOP leading the Generic Congressional Ballot by 10 points to which Gallup calls "unprecedented".
Then we see the general public continues to sour on Obamacare. (Latest poll from Kaiser found here.)
Now the latest Associated Press-GfK Poll shows that voters who take the most interest in issues, those most "attuned" are tilting toward the GOP.
In nine of 15 issues examined in an Associated Press-GfK Poll this month, more Americans who expressed intense interest in a problem voiced strong opposition to Obama's work on it, including the economy, unemployment, federal deficits and terrorism. They were about evenly split over the president's efforts on five issues and strongly approved of his direction on just one: U.S. relationships with other countries.
In another danger sign for Democrats, most Americans extremely concerned about 10 of the issues say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their local House race. Only those highly interested in the environment lean toward the Democrats.
The findings are troubling for Democrats struggling to protect their House and Senate majorities on Election Day. They suggest that many of the most involved voters — those with the deepest feelings about issues high on the nation's agenda — are furious with the party in power and will take out their wrath at the polls.
Is it any wonder that vulnerable Democratic politicians are scrambling to separate themselves from Obama's agenda and distancing themselves from Nancy Pelosi?
The roster of Democrats currently playing six degrees of separation from Pelosi spans the map, from the Northeast to the South and across the Midwest to South Dakota.
The GOP has used Pelosi, who represents a liberal San Francisco congressional district, as a wedge against vulnerable Democrats for almost as long as she has been in Democratic leadership. But with Election Day just nine weeks away, the sprint away from the House speaker highlights the increasing urgency with which the party’s most vulnerable legislators are trying to prove their independence from Democratic leaders and the Capitol Hill agenda that has defined President Barack Obama’s first term in office
Midterms are generally the area where voters take out their dissatisfaction with the ruling party, especially if the ruling party holds majorities in all three houses as the Democrats do now.
The level of dissatisfaction though is hitting a point never seen before and while handicappers predict big GOP gains and Democratic losses, it is beginning to look like "big" is an understatement for what we all may see happen in November, just nine weeks from now.
Must read piece over at Real Clear Politics showing the graphs and data relevant at the time of the healthcare vote and how Democrats not only can pinpoint their loss of momentum but watched it turn to dust to end up where they are now, trailing 10 points in Gallup's latest Generic Congressional Ballot and trailing by 25 points in the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats.
Reconstructing the Democrats' meme, we can fairly say that the economy is a huge problem for the party. Of this, there can be no doubt. We can also say that the stalled recovery denied the Democrats a chance to win back the voters they lost over health care. But the process and passage of health care reform were crucial elements in the story. That's when the party started losing the voters it needs to retain control of the government.
Make sure you read the whole thing and follow the links and pay attention to the graphs and time lines.
While major media and the Left would prefer to not even mention healthcare anymore, polling continues to leave Obamacare with more opposed (51.2 percent) than in favor (39.4 percent), on average.
The bottom line is that while the economy is first and foremost on the public's mind as a whole, jamming through Obamacare, the public understanding that the Democrats were determined to pass it even as the majority of Americans stood up and opposed it, was the beginning of their fast decline in polling.
Democrats that think that people going to the polls in November will not remember Obamacare and will be casting their vote with only the economy in mind.... are sorely mistaken.
The latest Kaiser Health Tracking Poll shows that while the economy is the most important factor in how voters will be voting in November, healthcare is also in the top three.
Respondents listed health care as the third most important factor in deciding how they’ll vote this fall — behind the economy and “dissatisfaction with government.”
Forty-two percent of respondents said health care reform will play an “extremely important” role in their ballot-box decisions, on par with the 41 percent who said the same thing in June.
According to Rasmussen, 58 percent of US voters still favor repealing Obamacare.
Anyone claiming that healthcare was not the start of Democrats freefall in the polls and suggest that Obamacare will not have anything to do with how people will vote in November, is simply burying their head in the sand.
The Executive Committee of the Alaska Libertarian Party held an emergency meeting to discuss the issue and voted to keep her off the ballot.
It was just chatter, no official moves had been made by Murkowski towards the Libertarian Party, but the blogosphere was ripe with gossip, to which these latest news reports should end.
More at Hotline On Call and Libertarian Republican.
If Miller should come out the winner after all the votes have been counted, then Murkowski should step up and offer unconditional support to the peoples choice and back him and encourage her supporters to do the same.
Gallup reports the GOP has taken what they call an "unprecedented" 10 point lead (51 percent to 41 percent) over Democrats in the Generic Congressional Ballot, where the question of Republican or Democrat is asked without specific names.
More importantly, Republicans also hold a 25 point lead in enthusiasm among registered voters (50 percent to 25 percent).
Rasmussens latest findings on the Generic Congressional Ballot is the GOP ahead by six points.
Interestingly, there is no surprise that Democrats back their candidate by 83 percent and Republicans back theirs by 85 percent. The numbers to watch for are the Independents which break towards the Republicans by a 21 percent margin with 44 percent favoring Republicans and 23 favoring Democrats.
The difference between the Gallup and Rasmussen polling methods is Gallup used registered voters and Rasmussen used likely voters.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Just over half of U.S. voters continue to believe that the new health care law will increase the cost of care and believe the law will be bad for the country.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 58% favor repeal of the new national health care law while 36% are opposed. These figures include 46% who Strongly Favor repeal and 28% who are Strongly Opposed.
A majority has favored repeal of the legislation in every single week since it became law. Support for repeal has ranged from a low of 52% to a high of 63%.
Welfare programs were created to help people that have hit bad times get a foothold, some help until they can get on their feet but since Democrats took over both Houses of Congress in 2007, the number of people on such programs as Welfare, food stamps, unemployment insurance and Medicaid have risen to record highs.
USA Today reports "Record number in government anti-poverty programs."
50 million Americans are on Medicaid, a 17 percent rise since December 2007.
40 million people get food stamps, a 50 percent rise.
10 million receive unemployment insurance, four times the amount that was recorded in 2007.
4.4 million people are on welfare, an 18 percent increase.
As caseloads for all the programs have soared, so have costs. The federal price tag for Medicaid has jumped 36% in two years, to $273 billion. Jobless benefits have soared from $43 billion to $160 billion. The food stamps program has risen 80%, to $70 billion. Welfare is up 24%, to $22 billion. Taken together, they cost more than Medicare.
The steady climb in safety-net program caseloads and costs has come as a result of two factors: The recession has boosted the number who qualify under existing rules. And the White House, Congress and states have expanded eligibility and benefits.
What these people need is not a permanent welfare state fix as they are being given, so dependent on the Government to support them they cannot get a foothold and dig their way out, what they need are jobs.
We need our manufacturing back, we need to give businesses incentive to create more jobs, hire more people, we need to give the wealthy a reason to start spending again, we need to undo the damage not continue to pile on to Government programs. As a country with a massive national debt that continues get bigger, we simply cannot afford to continue to extend benefits for the masses in the hopes that things will get better.
Close to 10 million receive unemployment insurance, nearly four times the number from 2007. Benefits have been extended by Congress eight times beyond the basic 26-week program, enabling the long-term unemployed to get up to 99 weeks of benefits. Caseloads peaked at nearly 12 million in January — "the highest numbers on record," says Christine Riordan of the National Employment Law Project, which advocates for low-wage workers.
Is it any wonder that 62 percent of the country believes we are going in the wrong direction?
[Update] Excellent, must read piece by Robert Barro, titled "The Folly of Subsidizing Unemployment," where he explains "My calculations suggest the jobless rate could be as low as 6.8%, instead of 9.5%, if jobless benefits hadn't been extended to 99 weeks."
In a recession, it is more likely that individual unemployment reflects weak economic conditions, rather than individual decisions to choose leisure over work. Therefore, it is reasonable during a recession to adopt a more generous unemployment-insurance program. In the past, this change entailed extensions to perhaps 39 weeks of eligibility from 26 weeks, though sometimes a bit more and typically conditioned on the employment situation in a person's state of residence. However, we have never experienced anything close to the blanket extension of eligibility to nearly two years. We have shifted toward a welfare program that resembles those in many Western European countries.
The administration has argued that the more generous unemployment-insurance program could not have had much impact on the unemployment rate because the recession is so severe that jobs are unavailable for many people. This perspective is odd on its face because, even at the worst of the downturn, the U.S. labor market featured a tremendous amount of turnover in the form of large numbers of persons hired and separated every month.
For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, near the worst of the recession in March 2009, 3.9 million people were hired and 4.7 million were separated from jobs. This net loss of 800,000 jobs in one month indicates a very weak economy—but nevertheless one in which 3.9 million people were hired. A program that reduced incentives for people to search for and accept jobs could surely matter a lot here.
Moreover, although the peak unemployment rate (thus far) of 10.1% in October 2009 is very disturbing, the rate was even higher in the 1982 recession (10.8% in November-December 1982). Thus, there is no reason to think that the United States is in a new world in which incentives provided by more generous unemployment-insurance programs do not matter much for unemployment.
Another reason to be skeptical about the administration's stance is that generous unemployment-insurance programs have been found to raise unemployment in many Western European countries in which unemployment rates have been far higher than the current U.S. rate.....
Read the entire piece.
Nine and a half weeks to go until the midterm elections and the chance for a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives is looking more likely, according to The Hill:
The playing field of competitive House races has expanded substantially over the past two months, increasing the chances that Republicans will control the lower chamber next year.
The news is good for Republicans, as many open seats are trending to the GOP while dozens of Democratic incumbents are scrambling to keep their jobs.
Democratic leaders are on the defensive, making the case they can still retain the majority in November while playing defense in districts they weren't expecting to be concerned about earlier in the cycle.
As the election environment has worsened for Democrats amid troubling new economic and polling data, Republicans have become increasingly bullish in their projections of major House gains.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) vice chairman, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), predicted Wednesday that as many as 80 seats will be in play this fall.
Over the past two weeks, Republican campaigns have gleefully blasted out internal numbers claiming leads for their challengers in districts that were considered safe bets for Democrats to retain.
The mood in Democratic and Republican circles is strikingly different from more than three months ago, when Mark Critz (D) easily won the special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.). That GOP loss stifled talk of Republicans winning control of the House in November. But the chatter is back, and it’s backed up by nonpartisan analysts.
As the article goes on to explain, Democrats will be putting considerable effort into a "get-out-the-vote campaign, encouraging Democratic supporters to go to the polls in November to help them retain their seats and control of the House of Representatives.
Last Friday news hit that voters now trust the GOP on all ten key issues they were questioned on, more than they trust Democrats and Republicans hold a nine point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot, all signs that the chance of a GOP takeover of the House is still rising.
Voters will determine that, voters unhappy with the way Washington has been run since Democrats took control of the House and Senate, voters unhappy with the way it has been run and the bills jammed through since Obama became president.
It all comes down to getting to the polls, casting your vote. If you are unhappy with how Washington is being run, the only way to change it is to go vote on November 2nd.
No matter what the new projections are, no matter how much of the country believes the country is on the wrong track (62 percent via RCP average of the latest 6 polls done), no matter how much of a majority lambastes Democrats for the way they have jammed through Obama's agenda in the House and Senate, if those same people do not go to voting booths in November and throw the Democrats out, they will retain control.
[Update] Even control of the Senate is not out of the realm of possibility anymore.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Obama Economic Advisory Member Calls For Another Stimulus Package Refusing To Learn From Germany's Success With Less Spending
"This crisis did not come about because we issued too little money but because we created economic growth with too much money, and it was not sustainable growth. If we want to learn from that, the answer is not to repeat the mistakes of the past." --German Chancellor Angela Merkel
Merkel said that in March of 2009 when she rejected calls to spend more public money in Germany as part of a coordinated stimulus for the global economy. (Source)
Instead, Germany created a short term small stimulus spending approximately 1.5 percent of G.D.P (gross domestic product)and took measures to balance their budgets and restore confidence.
Barack Obama and his team of economic advisors chose to go the opposite route and borrowed 6 percent of G.D.P and passed a massive stimulus plan costing $787 billion, extended unemployment benefits and passed the trillion dollar Obamacare healthcare package.
David Brooks called the difference in the handling the economic situation a "natural experiment" and compares the two countries and the results of that experiment over a year later.
The early returns suggest the Germans were. The American stimulus package was supposed to create a “summer of recovery,” according to Obama administration officials. Job growth was supposed to be surging at up to 500,000 a month. Instead, the U.S. economy is scuffling along.
The German economy, on the other hand, is growing at a sizzling (and obviously unsustainable) 9 percent annual rate. Unemployment in Germany has come down to pre-crisis levels.
Results from one quarter do not settle the stimulus/austerity debate. Many other factors are in play. For example, Germany is surging, in part, because America is borrowing. Essentially, we Americans borrowed from our kids, spent some of that money on German machinery, and ended up employing German workers.
But the results do underline one essential truth: Stimulus size is not the key factor in determining how quickly a country emerges from recession. The U.S. tried big, but is emerging slowly. The Germans tried small, and are recovering nicely.
America's growth is crawling at 1.6 percent and unemployment is up to 9.5 percent and a member of President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, Laura Tyson, claims a second stimulus is needed and unemployment would be up to over 11 percent without the original stimulus.
Yet, her opinion of what it "could" have been without the stimulus is just that, theory and opinion, yet the cold hard reality of what Germany did and how their method truly did stimulate their economy by lowering their unemployment numbers and a 9 percent growth is ignored by Tyson and team Obama.
As the graphs above show, Merkel was right. Massive spending is a temporary fix and proved to be unsustainable.
This is a lesson Team Obama refuses to learn and their refusal to admit they were wrong and instead want to double down their bet using our money, our grand children's money and even our great grand children's money, is unacceptable.
Obama's economic advisors need to be replaced immediately if this is the type of advice they are giving him.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Everyone is talking about the Restoring Honor Rally and Glenn Beck, which by most standards would label it a success. Those that hate Beck are chattering and blogging about it, those that like Beck are doing the same... on Memeorandum the whole front page is full of news articles and discussions surrounding the rally.
Dems meet Beck rally with door-knocking campaign
Glenn Beck ‘Restoring Honor’ Rally Draws Vast Crowd to National Mall
Sarah Palin Thanks America's ‘Giants,’ Large And Small, At Restoring Honor Rally20 minutes ago
‘Restoring Honor’ at the Lincoln Memorial; Update: Live Stream Included
Parallel Rallies by Beck and Sharpton
Beck talks faith in rally coinciding with anniversary of King's speech
There was nothing to fear on Aug. 28, 1963
TWO VERY DIFFERENT DREAMS, STRIVING FOR VERY DIFFERENT MOUNTAINTOPS. …
Honor And American Pride Come To DC . . . UPDATED I, II, III, IV
Glenn Beck's ‘Restoring Honor’ Rally Draws Tea Party Activists
Where Dr. King Stood, Tea Party Claims His Mantle
Love it or hate it, that kind of PR is a success no matter how you cut it.